Reactions to story from The New York Times

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  Can you hear the sound of the economy stopping?

  http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/10/10/real_economy_paral...
  43 days ago in How the World Works - Salon.com · Authority: 826

    Naked Capitalism's Yves Smith spots a concrete example of how the credit freeze is bringing the real economy grinding to a halt. Shipments of grain are piling up in U.S. and South American ports, unable to move because sellers no longer trust that
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  http://global-equality.org/news/blog/2008/10/economic-mess-p...
  38 days ago in Sherman's Blog - Political & Social Commentary · Authority: 1

  Economic Mess / Panic Deepens; Electoral “Fraud” You've seen the allegations, the multiple registrations under the same name, the more registered voters than the population, these are serious allegations, my friends, and they must be investigated, and they must be investigated immediately and they must be stopped before November the fourth, so Americans will not -- will not -- be deprived of a fair process in this election. -John McCain Voter Fraud, Voter Suppression: The former is the smokescreen, hoping to distract us from the latter, which is all about driving down the vote. The goal is to make us distrust the system and our candidates and then The Select will get their candidate. Rush Limbaugh is on this, articles are appearing, and one gets the sense that an Obama victory will be greeted by a conservative chorus of “Fraud!” But, first McCain has to join the chorus claiming “fraud!” in an effort to arrest his decline in the polls. Thursday’s NY Times front-paged the issue, noting that in some states more people have been eliminated from the rolls than have been registered. Tens of thousands of eligible voters in at least six swing states have been removed from the rolls or have been blocked from registering in ways that appear to violate federal law, according to a review of state records and Social Security data by The New York Times. The actions do not seem to be coordinated by one party or the other, nor do they appear to be the result of election officials intentionally breaking rules, but are apparently the result of mistakes in the handling of the registrations and voter files as the states tried to comply with a 2002 federal law, intended to overhaul the way elections are run. Still, because Democrats have been more aggressive at registering new voters this year, according to state election officials, any heightened screening of new applications may affect their party’s supporters disproportionately. The screening or trimming of voter registration lists in the six states — Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina — could also result in problems at the polls on Election Day: people who have been removed from the rolls are likely to show up only to be challenged by political party officials or election workers, resulting in confusion, long lines and heated tempers… Although much attention this year has been focused on the millions of new voters being added to the rolls by the candidacy of Senator Barack Obama, there has been far less notice given to the number of voters being dropped from those same rolls. States have been trying to follow the Help America Vote Act of 2002 and remove the names of voters who should no longer be listed; but for every voter added to the rolls in the past two months in some states, election officials have removed two, a review of the records shows. The six swing states seem to be in violation of federal law in two ways. Michigan and Colorado are removing voters from the rolls within 90 days of a federal election, which is not allowed except when voters die, notify the authorities that they have moved out of state, or have been declared unfit to vote… In three states — Colorado, Louisiana and Michigan — the number of people purged from the election rolls since Aug. 1 far exceeds the number who may have died or relocated during that period. States may be improperly removing voters who have moved within the state, election experts said, or who are considered inactive because they have failed to vote in two consecutive federal elections. For example, major voter registration drives have been held this year in Colorado, which has also had a significant population increase since the last presidential election, but the state has recorded a net loss of nearly 100,000 voters from its rolls since 2004. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/us/politics/09voting.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&ref=us&pagewanted=print Acorn: This is the potential scapegoat. The long-standing activist organization has done much voter registration and is being portrayed by the Right as an Obama organization. A few Hillary Clinton supporters (Hillaryclintonforum.net) are freshly trying to claim that Obama stole the election from her. The following is a typical, not-factually-based report that’s circulating. Federal authorities are investigating the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, otherwise known as ACORN, in at least ten states including Missouri. Thousands of fraudulent voter registrations have surfaced after having been submitted by ACORN. In some parts of Ohio, over half of the registrations submitted by ACORN are at least questionable. ACORN even admits that it is unable to insure there is no fraud. In the Kansas City area, one name, Monica Ray, registered 20 times. It is time to put a stop to ACORN and restore some integrity to the election process. So now we know what a “community organizer” is. ACORN is a left wing organization that Barack Obama used to work with. They pay people to solicit voter registrations and quotas must be met. This is a formula for fraud. The only thing that matters is how many registrations are submitted, not how authentic they are. In Indianapolis, it was announced today that they have a total of 677,401 voter registrations. The problem is that Indianapolis only has 644,197 voter population. That means they have a registration of 105%. http://voices.kansascity.com/node/2375 Fraud Charges: The Goal: Eric Alterman: Fox News now is repeating voter fraud charges out of Ohio, saying, “The … complaint puts new focus on the issue of voter fraud, which took on new meaning following the contested presidential election in 2000.” Local news outlets regularly repeat charges of fraud as well. CBS2 in Chicago reports “[t]ensions are rising in northwest Indiana as the race for president there tightens. As voter registration came to a close Monday, John McCain supporters alleged fraud.” The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, too, is running a story that begins, “An official with the Republican National Committee said Thursday that a group involved with voter registration drives in Milwaukee is ‘engaged in systematic fraud and attempts to undermine our electoral system.’” Yet these accounts lack the crucial context that should be included in every journalistic account of such charges—that voter fraud allegations are frequently based on shaky evidence with partisan goals in mind. Project Vote recently released a detailed study of how accusations of voter fraud are often efforts to stop minorities and young people from voting. Called “The Politics of Voter Fraud,” the report details “how charges of voter fraud are used to discredit voter participation efforts and prime the pump for voter suppression efforts, such as the passage of voter ID bills, pushing for proof of citizenship, engaging in draconian voter purge efforts, and imposing severe restrictions on voter registration drives.” Basically, partisan operatives make loud charges of “fraud” to discourage further enrollment of new voters—even though the evidence behind the charges is frequently paper-thin. This, in fact, was official government policy under the Bush administration. In the wake of the U.S. Attorneys scandal, Jeanne Cummings of the Associated Press reported that “operatives tucked thick folders of newspaper clippings and other fraud tips under their arms and pitched to reporters their claims that the Democrats’ registration program would lead to rampant voter fraud. Their passion was clear, but their evidence was slim, consisting mostly of isolated incidents of voter registration irregularities that were handled by local police or election officials.” These thin charges are easy to disprove should journalists choose to do so. Sadly, Erin Ferns and Nathan Henderson-James of Project Vote write that, “the history of this issue shows that it has been bereft of this kind of basic journalism, even through the 2006 mid-term elections. This is important because haphazard reporting of partisan claims of voter fraud without checking the facts is how the media helps these voter suppression efforts. These stories not only deter potential voters from getting on the rolls, but… inspire bad election reforms aimed at disenfranchising voters, particularly those that are currently underrepresented in the electorate.” http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/10/voter_fraud.html Economy: Free Fall at the Stock Market, Action Needed! The stock market is having the worst year since 1931, the second full year of the Depression. Concern deepens as to our international, economic meltdown. The need is for some concerted international action. The meeting this weekend amongst principal finance ministers is viewed by many as key. Paul Krugman favors the British action of direct assistance to banks, and he posits that the meeting’s success is necessary to prevent another Depression: Why do we need international cooperation? Because we have a globalized financial system in which a crisis that began with a bubble in Florida condos and California McMansions has caused monetary catastrophe in Iceland. We’re all in this together, and need a shared solution. Why this weekend? Because there happen to be two big meetings taking place in Washington: a meeting of top financial officials from the major advanced nations on Friday, then the annual International Monetary Fund/World Bank meeting Saturday and Sunday. If these meetings end without at least an agreement in principle on a global rescue plan — if everyone goes home with nothing more than vague assertions that they intend to stay on top of the situation — a golden opportunity will have been missed, and the downward spiral could easily get even worse. What should be done? The United States and Europe should just say “Yes, prime minister.” The British plan isn’t perfect, but there’s widespread agreement among economists that it offers by far the best available template for a broader rescue effort. And the time to act is now. You may think that things can’t get any worse — but they can, and if nothing is done in the next few days, they will. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/10/opinion/10krugman.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print Catch-up: From earlier in the week: Deficit: …though this may need updating as the economy plummets and its rescue gets more expensive… Because of [the Troubled Assert Relief Plan], my estimate is that the budget deficit could easily reach or exceed $1 trillion this year. This includes my estimate of a $600 billion deficit before TARP and an additional $400 billion afterwards. A deficit of that size would be between and 6 percent and 7 percent of gross domestic product, a level that hasn't been reached since fiscal 1942-1946 when the United States was fighting and paying for the direct costs of World War II. But the bigger cost of TARP may well be less in dollar terms than in making progress in other areas. A $1 trillion, 7-percent-of-GDP deficit likely will chill most of the spending and taxing plans of whoever is elected as hoped-for tax cuts and spending increases have to be delayed. http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/stan-collender/566/weeks-fiscal-fitness Miers, Bolton: Safe The Administration has successfully resisted efforts to force them to testify: A federal appeals court on Monday rejected House Democrats' demands to force two of President Bush's top aides to cooperate with an investigation about the firings of nine federal prosecutors in 2006. . . . Monday's ruling blocks a July order by U.S. District Judge John Bates to force former White House counsel Harriet Miers to testify before the House Judiciary Committee and current presidential chief of staff Josh Bolten to turn over documents about the controversial firings. Democrats say the firings, which led to the resignation of former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales last year, were politically motivated. That charge was backed up by an internal Justice Department investigation, which last week found “substantial evidence that partisan political considerations played a part in the removal of several of the U.S. attorneys." http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100601441.html Campaign: All Ayers, all the time: McCain promises his increasingly mob-like audiences that he’ll bring up all of Obama’s “associations” in the next debate; McCain is losing control of his increasingly hostile audiences, as the Wall Street Journal notes, the campaign “has found itself at the center of an outpouring of raw emotion rare in a presidential race.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjxzmaXAg9E Palin explains that she did poorly in interviews because she was so frustrated that the media were not asking the questions, demanding answers…of Obama (about Bill Ayers). It’s all they have left. But, if poll numbers don’t lift, they’ll try something else no later than next week. Non-Debates, Press Conferences: It should be a big deal that Palin, a total unknown as of six weeks ago, has not held a press conference. Yet, the press does not demand such, and the Obama campaign stays ‘positive,’ limiting how much they target the opposition. [A news conference should occur today when the Troopergate report is released, but it’s hard to imagine that report being definitive in view of the minimalist cooperation by Palin and associates.] Obama, Unions, Race: Amidst reports that Rust Belt union organizers have confronted voters “who won’t vote for a Black Man,” the following directly addresses “how race is used to divide working people”: http://ta-nehisicoates.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/this_exactly_what_i_have_been_waiting_for.php The Real McCain: Portrait that captures the consistency of the guy- that he’s always been an “undisciplined, spoiled brat.” At Fort McNair, an army base located along the Potomac River in the nation's capital, a chance reunion takes place one day between two former POWs. It's the spring of 1974, and Navy commander John Sidney McCain III has returned home from the experience in Hanoi that, according to legend, transformed him from a callow and reckless youth into a serious man of patriotism and purpose. Walking along the grounds at Fort McNair, McCain runs into John Dramesi, an Air Force lieutenant colonel who was also imprisoned and tortured in Vietnam. McCain is studying at the National War College, a prestigious graduate program he had to pull strings with the Secretary of the Navy to get into. Dramesi is enrolled, on his own merit, at the Industrial College of the Armed Forces in the building next door. There's a distance between the two men that belies their shared experience in North Vietnam — call it an honor gap. Like many American POWs, McCain broke down under torture and offered a "confession" to his North Vietnamese captors. Dramesi, in contrast, attempted two daring escapes. For the second he was brutalized for a month with daily torture sessions that nearly killed him. His partner in the escape, Lt. Col. Ed Atterberry, didn't survive the mistreatment. But Dramesi never said a disloyal word, and for his heroism was awarded two Air Force Crosses, one of the service's highest distinctions. McCain would later hail him as "one of the toughest guys I've ever met." On the grounds between the two brick colleges, the chitchat between the scion of four-star admirals and the son of a prizefighter turns to their academic travels; both colleges sponsor a trip abroad for young officers to network with military and political leaders in a distant corner of the globe. "I'm going to the Middle East," Dramesi says. "Turkey, Kuwait, Lebanon, Iran." "Why are you going to the Middle East?" McCain asks, dismissively. "It's a place we're probably going to have some problems," Dramesi says. "Why? Where are you going to, John?" "Oh, I'm going to Rio." "What the hell are you going to Rio for?" McCain, a married father of three, shrugs. "I got a better chance of getting laid." Dramesi, who went on to serve as chief war planner for U.S. Air Forces in Europe and commander of a wing of the Strategic Air Command, was not surprised. "McCain says his life changed while he was in Vietnam, and he is now a different man," Dramesi says today. "But he's still the undisciplined, spoiled brat that he was when he went in." http://www.rollingstone.com/news/story/23316912/makebelieve_maverick/print -R
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  今日のメモとリンク；長すぎで誰も読まないだろうけど

  http://neshiki.typepad.jp/nekoyanagi/2008/10/post-ff5d.html
  43 days ago in ね式（世界の読み方） · Authority: 9

  うちのブログ・カテゴリーに『エコノミー』ってのを最初から作っておけばよかったと、今頃気づいた。 まあ、これはアタクシ一人じゃないでしょうが、後出しじゃんけんで言えば、2001年の911から数ヶ月後にはダメダコリャと思ったわけで、何がだめってそりゃアメリカ合衆国のかなり前からの冗談みたいな（byマイケル・モア）脂肪体的に拡大した米国政策全体で、ひいては合衆国が牽引する世界経済・金融・社会・農業・軍事、、そして難民救済まで含むポスト・モダンな現行世界システム全体のことでもある。 おととしの夏だったが昼食をともにした高校時代の友達（現在は横浜でこじんまりした飲み屋を配偶者と二人で経営してるノンポリ普通の人）が「猫屋、このごろ思うんだけど、絶対なんかが根本的に間違ってる」とため息をつきながら言ってた。去年の夏は、同様な言葉を多数の友人の口から聞くことになった。つまり、要約してみれば これだけ働いても、子供の教育（費）とぼけた両親の世話で休む時間も余暇にあてる金もなくなった。これで自分が働けなくなった時には、国家も子供たちも自分たちの面倒は見てくれないだろう。日本は世界で２番目の金持ち国なんだそうだが、どっか変じゃね？ と、言うことである。しかり。 * 今日、株式系で分かったこと、 木曜日はユダヤ教の長い正月の祭りのひとつで、世界中で多くの企業が閉店。それでニューヨーク株式市場でも売り買いされたヴォリュームは少なかったんだけど下げ幅が凄かった。生き残りヘッジ・ファンドがスペキュに必要な資金を調達できずに仕方なく店じまいする前にフォンダメンタルの堅固な企業株（虎の子）を投売り現金化したことと、ニュー・ヨーク市場でのショート・セリング（借金でスペキュ）の禁止が終わって、トレーダーが再び空売りを始めた、ってのがおもな理由だったようだ。 結局のところ、すべては加速し続けるのに、各国オーソリティーの反応が現象（サブプライム・金融危機・クレジットクランチ・株価暴落、、、もうすぐバンク・ラン？）の後を追うばかりで、後手後手に空振りしている。決定打がない。例：ブッシュの重大スピーチが発表されるたびにダウ・ジョーンズ平均が大きく下がる。最悪スパイラルである。 * 今日の、いやな予感、 ここフランスでの動きがいちばん理解しやすいから、それを例にとってみる。デフォンスの本屋でちらっと目にしたゴシップ系週刊誌のグラビアでびっくり：ディオールとかのゴージャスなドレス（借り物）で高名な仏共和国法務大臣のダチ（ただいま妊娠中だが父親不明のシングル・マザー）が、ごくごく普通の茶系のセーター着て、メークも目だけで真ん丸くなって写真に納まってた。8日には、中小企業救済策として仏共和国経済相ラガルド（別名ラ・ギャッフ、もとはアリーマックビルのボス的シカゴ弁護士事務所長のひと、いつも黒いスーツで、女優のグレン・クローズ風味）が、髪セットもなしの姿で、ロトが当たった時みたいな横幅約２メートルの小切手（国家援助だってさ）を中小企業の社長さんにうれしそうに渡していた。。。グレン・クローズ風味マダム・ラ・マルキーズの単なるおばさん化である。これが政府の（メディア向け）社会政策であるね。 サル・オヤビンは10日ほど位前にに、南仏はトゥーロンで「資本主義の行き過ぎは訂正しなければならない。罪を犯したものは罰せられるべき」とかの『社会主義宣言』を行った。 ポールソン初案が議会で否決された理由のひとつも、『“自由”世界米国では、国家介入はダメ』というオーソドックスな自由経済論が共和党などから出たからだ。 米国オーソリティは、実質的金融機関の国有化も一時的なものだ、と釘を刺しているが、このあとリストには、ワコビアとの合併作戦に失敗した（固定資本のない）シティ・グループや、株価がた落ちのGMやフォードの自動車産業やGEの破綻可能性がある。それを許したら米国の経済はニッチもサッチも行かなくなるだろう。そこで国家援助政策をまたまた継続すれば、金融ばかりでなく米国経済全体の（一時的ではあるにしろ、出口は見えない）国有化ってことになる。。。。 １１月の大統領選挙でオバマが選出されたとしても、実際の新大統領就任は来年。約４ヶ月というホボ政治空白があるわけだ。 現在の米国を仕切っているのは、FED（FRB）のベン・バーナンキと米財務長官のハンク・ポールソンだが、バーナンキは大恐慌の専門家ではあるがあくまでアカデミー経済界（学問の意で映画とはまったく関係なし）でのオーソリティで、斬った張ったの現場スキルはないし、逆にポールソンはハーバードで経済を学んでからニクソン政権内で勤め、１９９０年から１６年間ゴールドマン・サックスに勤務、２００６年に現米国政府からスノーの後継者として財務長官に任命されたわけだが（ゴールドマン・サックスCEOをやめた時のペイ全体はストック・オプション売却も含め約4億8600万ドルだったという）、衰退した企業を吸収して膨張するブル・ドミノ・マネージメント手腕はあっても、万人のコンセンサスがなければ前にすすめない環境である政治についてはアマチュアといっていいだろう。 さて、バラコバマもマケインも、次の税務長官にはあのウォーレン・バフェット（７８歳！）を任命すると言ってる。いいのかなあ。たしかにバフェットは２００７年米国長者版付けナンバー1（ドルが多少持ち直したので世界ナンバー1らしい）で、今回の危機ではGM救済のために個人資産を注ぎ込んでいる。いまでも質素な生活をし、チャリティに巨大な金額を使っているが、でも、（いかに経験があろうと、いかに道徳的に優れていようと）株でもうけた人物に、国家の経済を任せられるものだろうか。 以前にもメモしましたし、フクヤマ教授も言ってるように、ひとつの国家をひとつの企業のようには経営できない。ここでフランス・モデルに帰ってくるですが、たとえばサルコジはフランス共和国をひとつの企業として経営しようとしてコケテいる。K夫人の言葉を借りれば「郊外の中古車販売店の社長さんには仏国大統領職はムリ」なのである。 サルコの策はこうだ：会社法専門弁護士だったころに、地元ヌイイやオート・ド・セーヌ県の経済界大物たちとのコネクション網をつくり、それからシラク政権に入って、当時の内務大臣パスクワ（同じくオート・ド・セーヌ）にも近づく。。。本人が内務相になった時代には、メディア界に接近、経済相時には仏経済自由化をかるが任期が短すぎた。続いて大敵ド・ヴィルパンの失脚後UMP党首となる。。。そうして、メディア・財界それから映画や歌謡曲界などの交友関係をテコに、改革ともっと働いてもっと稼ぐをスローガンにして、大統領職に就く。 サルコジの野心は、冷戦後の経済が仕切る世界において、CAC40（パリ株式市場上場４０社）の世界内競争力を高め、生き残らせるばかりではなく世界新資本主義のパイ（ケーキでもピザでもカマンベールチーズでもいいけど）の一部を仏国財界がキープするという、一種の経済ナショナリズムと言えるだろう。 だが、国家経営と企業経営は違う。どこが違うのか？企業の目的は利益追求だが、国家の目的は社会安定だと言っていいと思う。しかし現行の国家の多くが、生産性中心主義にシフトしてしまっている。 経営がうまくいかなくなっても、コストカットのためのリストラを、本来の国家はできないはずなんだ。だが、現在の多くの国家は、たとえば世界で一番豊かなはずの米国でも２番めのわが母国でも同様だし、アフリカなどの貧しい国家でも、国家リストラ、つまり最も貧しい移民・失業者・低所得高年齢者を解雇/疎外することで成り立ってる。これが国家の企業化現象の登録商標だろう。一気に長くなっちゃいました、ゼイゼイ。 つまり、サルコにモラルがあるとは思えないけど、たとえばバフェットのモラルも、あくまで慈善事業なんだと思う。そこがバフェットの限界だろう。まあ、バフェット任命の話は、バラコとマケインの選挙に向けたストラテジーだと思うけどね。バラコバマはバフェットを財務長官に就け、周辺をクリントンのながれの経済専門家で固めるつもりだろう（少なくともミルトン・フリードマンはもう生きてないんでよしとせねばならぬか←独り言です）。 * ありゃ、何の話だったっけ。あ、そうだ、小さい国家と大きな繁栄（利益）と、大きい国家と小さな利益の話に行くはずだったのだ。 めんどくさいのではしょるわけだが、サルオヤビンが貧民救済だとか新資本主義の終焉だとか言ってる割には、このごろの仏メディアに左系経済学者や左系ジャーナリストが登場しない。ケインズのはなしとかもまったく出てこない。レギュレーション理論のアグリエッタ教授も、収入格差と税制が専門のピケティ先生も、低開発国の経済発展とグロバリゼーションが専門のダニエル・コーエン教授の声も聞こえてこない。オルター系経済学者だって出てきても夕方か真夜中過ぎのマイナーな討論番組で刺身のツマ的にしか登場しない。さらには、社会党幹部メンバーの話も、社会党内部抗争（仁義なき戦い）ネタ以外では一切出てこない。おかしい。 仏国極左客寄せパンダのブザンスノーぐらいしか視野に入ってこない。とっても、おかしい。 結局、仏国の不幸の原因はすべて仏社会党のせいだ、というキャンペーンを張ってきたサルコは、仏国の反対勢力あるいは自由報道による批判を一切封じ込めてしまっている。これって、民主主義の終焉とちゃう？ あいかわらず近場フランスの例だが、気をつけるべきは、サルコジはこれからすべての不幸を、いままでのように仏社会党かヨーロッパのせいではなく、金融・経済危機のせいにして自分の政治責任は免責、今となってはなんとも金箔のはげた構造改革を進めるだろう。 これは単なる予感だが、流れとしては空洞化した世界金融システムの底なし穴に、国家資本（ヨーロッパにはロシア資本、米国では中近東と中国のとか、、）を導入しようとするんじゃないかと、これは陰謀論をかすめちゃうわけだが、そう思う。 これにはこの2・3日、イスラエル・パレスティナやシリアに絡んだクシュネール仏外務相の動きが極めて変だったり、グルジアの自治国を除いた地区でロシア軍がすんなり撤退したとか、サルコ・メドヴェジェフ現露大統領会談があったとか、アイスランドでの国家財政危機にEUではなくロシアが資本をだしてるとかの、可能的伏線はあるんだが、ソースとしては決定的ではない。 ** 参考おまけ：元オルター系経済専門ジャーナリストの意見です。大雑把だけど、Fukuyama 論を超える社会学的視点で書いてる： Vers un retour de la question sociale au coeur de la crise ワシントン・ポストの書く欧州事情：Financial Crisis Tests Limits of Unity Within the E.U. このル・モンド記事も @import url(http://medias.lemonde.fr/mmpub/css/blog.css); Le climat social dans la tempête, par Michel Noblecourt LE MONDE | 10.10.08 © クルーグマン教授の最新NYTコラムも追加：Moment of Truth 14日追記；ところどころテニオハ書き変えました。クルーグマンが経済でノーベル賞受賞したんでびっくり。今年のノーベルの中の人たちはかなり過激です。そこここで、今年は経済学では受賞者がないだろう（近年の受賞者には経済工学複雑系も多くて、クレジット・バブル形成に責任ありじゃん、、という意見）なんて聞いてたので二重にびっくり。
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  "Crash Master" II: Krugman

  http://sun-bin.blogspot.com/2008/10/crash-master-ii-krugman....
  39 days ago in Sun Bin · Authority: 32

  He didn't say "crash", but he was right in 1994 (for what happened in 1997 - which was when I started to follow his writings) and again this time. Although I read his NYT columns much less frequently, since W took office he tended to add a partisan paragraph to the end of his column which made him look less objective. While I am with him on most of his criticism on the Bush government, I felt his writing was more emotional than academic and stopped reading him. My view on Krugman is best summarized by that in this Henderson WSJ Op-ed. 1) How bad is the mortgage crisis going to get? - Paul Krugman, March 17 2008 My preferred metric is the ratio of home prices to rental rates. By that measure, average home prices nationally got way too high. We'll probably basically retrace all that. So that's about a 25% decline in overall home prices. Only a fraction of that's happened so far. Of course, it varies a lot. In places like Houston or Atlanta, where home prices have not risen much compared with underlying rents, the decline will be relatively small. In places like Miami or Los Angeles, you could be looking at 40% or 50% declines. My preferred metric is average income per family vs house price, in addition to Krugman's metric. The US housing price had a multiple (against, income/capita) very close to that of HK in 1997. So I expect similar decline this time. Krugman then added this pithy remarkBut if we think home prices overshot on the way up, why can't they overshoot on the way down too? Why not the Great Depression? Because I think we know something that we didn't then. The Federal Reserve was clueless back then. They were only concerned about protecting the nation's gold reserves, and the federal government believed that austerity and cutting spending was the answer to recession. I think we know more than we did then, and just the fact that we have a big federal government is a stabilizing factor. But the current problem is still pretty awesome. The Paulson plan makes no sense and doesn't solve the problem. All it does is to save his crony i-bankers and the failed hedge fund manager, while punishing the hedge fund managers who bet correctly! There $62tr in CDS according to Big Picture (read his post on the 'blame game'), what can 0.7tr do? So Krugman is right that if the problem is in credit crunch and put your dollar into the credit directly! ---- The Nobel winning paper: The Role of Geography in Development Paul Krugman April 1998 http://www.worldbank.org/html/rad/abcde/krugman.pdf Other links: Moment of Truth Edge of the Abyss Where Are the Grown-Ups?and his NYT column RSS Krugman Helped Us Understand Trade - WSJ and the negative view focusing on all he has done wrong - Krugman’s Posthumous Nobel by a basher

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