Reactions to story from International Herald Tribune

• 

  Dow to 6500

  http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2008/10/13...
  50 days ago in Stock Discussion, Trading Ideas — iBankCoin.com · Authority: 21

  Here are six reasons i think that Wall Street is toast for a very long time. 1. The failure of the $700bln dollar bailout the first time out is still in the back of a lot of investors minds. Regardless of whatever passed afterwards - there is a recognised risk that Main Street really does not understand nor wish to help Wall Street. That is until commercial paper remains coagulated and they lose their jobs will Main Street “get it”. Whatever list of arrangements made over the weekend - they are all a matter of restoring “confidence” in appearance but will probably not fix the interbank lending. That is disrupted long term and until banks are willing to trust each other and the consumer - well things are going to remain ugly. 2. The USD will soon no longer be the “reserve currency of choice” because the FED continues to crush it’s value to keep the US out of the recession it should have really had in 2000. All this trouble has prompted China (who remember holds warehouses of US pesos) to start talking about reconstructing the international financial system and remove the contagion of risk that the US brings. The “man in the street” in China (you know they made probably 90% of the things that are in your home) really believes that the US led the Chinese central bank into buying USD as an act of economic war. Europe now is not too happy: Typically at World Bank meetings, officials grouse about the misguided protesters. This year, things are a little different. “There’s no question the Washington consensus is dead,” one senior World Bank official said, requesting anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly to a reporter. He said he was referring to “the free-market consensus,” adding that at the World Bank, the push toward deregulation and unfettered free markets “died at the time of the $700 billion bailout.” Letting Lehman Brothers fail was a stupid move of the first order as well and points to a distracted and wrongly pointed Treasury and central bank in the US. 3. The surge in investments to Wall Street via 401ks is about to drop off in a significant way as baby boomers retire and the market stumbles. The smart ones have already gone to cash or are in the process of redeeming their mutual fund investments in a mad dash to protect what little money they have to spend in their golden years. Generation X is already more cautious. Investors have withdrawn more than $81 billion from stock mutual funds since the beginning of the year, with nearly 40 percent of that coming in the last six weeks, according to AMG Data Services, an industry research firm. 4. If you thought the sub prime and Alt-A markets were bad - just you wait until the credit card market implodes. 5. If the side effect of the devauled USD was a rise in the Dow - what happens when the dollar goes on a rampage? 6. The overarching theme of debt in the US is transforming it from an economic super power of wealth creation to the largest debtor nation since the Roman Empire: “One thing seems probable to me,” Peer Steinbrück, the German finance minister, said recently. “The U.S. will lose its status as the superpower of the global financial system.” At another time, that remark might have sounded like mere nationalist bluster. Right now, it does not seem so ridiculous to ask whether 2008 will come to be seen as the first year of a distinctly non-American century. At the heart of the troubles, both short term and long term, is debt. Furthermore all the money being thrown in is at the wrong things: “If you told me we were spending like crazy to build schools and send everyone to college, that would have infinitely different implications than borrowing like crazy to finance current consumption,” said Christina Romer, an economist at the University of California at Berkeley. Schools, roads, airports and the medical system, as well as the country’s energy policy, all appear to need significant fixing, and yet there will be less money to fix them than there was 5 or 10 years ago. With the coming explosion in Medicare costs, the U.S. budget deficit could eventually get so large that foreign investors would get spooked. They might then decide that other economies were safer bets and shift more of their lending there. Were that to happen, and the United States struggled to attract financing, the country would face a whole new crisis. The Takeaway Fade the coming rally. It’s a headfake of the first order. Once the market realises that the central banks can’t backstop everything it’ll be another leg down and a brutal one at that. When I started writing this post the futures were up 410 - now they’re down to 350. I don’t care if this rally lasts six months - it’s a head fake. I feel that optimistically we are perhaps 1/3 to 1/2 way through this mess. And no one has really talked about the derivatives market in a meaningful way yet. I saw a figure last week that mentioned that $7trln dollars had evaporated last week. That money isn’t going to be easily replaced even with deficit spending. I still like shiny metals (GLD: 81.97 -0.02%) and Japanese currency (FXY: 97.2834 -0.40%) Theme Song You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
• 

  The gender gap again confounds researchers

  http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/09/09/healthscience/09tier....
  84 days ago in Health & Science - International Herald Tribune · Authority: 8

  What is the origin of personality differences between men and women? A series of research teams have analyzed personality tests taken in more than 60 countries - and came up with unexpected results. A young Indian researcher who grew up studying by kerosene lamp has led the way in two promising discoveries: a key to metastasis, the insidious process by which cancer spreads, and a possible way to transform regular cells into stem cells. Exotic species receive lots of attention and create lots of worry, but some researchers argue that attitudes about them are too simplistic. Low levels of the vitamin B12, found in meat, milk and eggs, may lead to a reduction in brain volume, a new study shows. A survey finds that depression is quite common among the young orphans of Rwanda. The Large Hadron Collider at CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, and coming online Wednesday, will explore the tiniest particles and come closer to re-enacting the Big Bang. Researchers have discovered that the main active ingredient in marijuana shows promise as an antibacterial agent. Leading ice specialists in Europe and the United States have agreed for the first time that a ring of navigable waters has opened all around the fringes of the cap of sea ice drifting on the warming Arctic Ocean. Experts said the new study had all but closed the case: For the brain, remembering is a lot like doing. The democratization of addiction may be an appealing message, but it does not reflect reality. New risk charts in a paper published in The Journal of the National Cancer Institute provide a broader perspective than most of the risk calculators on the Internet. New gene chips - devices that test the DNA at sites along the genome - can assess 500,000 of the genome's three billion units at a time. When these differences are added together, a linkage emerges. The okapi, an elusive animal that scientists say has not previously been photographed roaming in the wild, has been snapped by a camera in Congo. Sharing is good, but researchers discuss if it can spin out of control for teenagers. A study has found that surgery is no better than more conservative treatment to relieve knee pain caused by arthritis, but experts are divided about what effect the study and a similar one from 2002 will have. While women have been a major presence in medicine since the late-20th century, the field of urology remained an exception. But now, that field, too, is undergoing a gender transformation. The memory of the attack on the World Trade Center remains an everyday reality for the people who were severely burned, and lived. The United Nations convened an unusual forum of 18 victims of terrorist attacks around the world - their testimony intended to highlight the human toll that organizers said often gets overlooked. The first large-scale study of the consumption of nuts and popcorn shows no link between the development of, or complications with, diverticulosis. Pharmacologists who believe salvia could open new frontiers for the treatment of addiction, depression and pain fear that its criminalization would make it burdensome to obtain and store the plant, and difficult to gain government permission for tests on human subjects. Paternal age seems to be tied to the likelihood of having children who develop bipolar disorder as adults, a large study reports. A staff nurse tells her first experience with "Condition A," the sudden death of a patient. What is the origin of personality differences between men and women? A series of research teams have analyzed personality tests taken in more than 60 countries - and came up with unexpected results.
• 

  Dawn of the Dread

  http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2008/09/06...
  88 days ago in Stock Discussion, Trading Ideas — iBankCoin.com · Authority: 21

  As Tropical Storm Hanna makes a blitz into the East Coast, details were released after hours regarding the proposed zombification of Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.73 -89.63%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.88 -82.75%) . By all accounts, it appears that the common stock will be diluted to protect the  preferred stock. In other news, the after market dropped over a dollar for each Fannie/Freddie as non bond holders sought life jackets and jumped over board. At this point most,  of this information is stale and has already been or will be promulgated ad nauseum so I would like to present something that has been rattling around in my brain for a few weeks now. The Next Leg Down As has been noted here and in other areas - there has been a noticed correlation between the index price of the US Dollar and the rises/retreats of the Dow Jones. Put directly - it is allegedly an inverse relationship whereby the Fed has adjusted currency rates to either prop up the market or put the brakes on rapid inflation. Many a market theorist has opined that Ben’s predecessor created the sub-prime fiasco in vitro by pushing the real interest rates lower to stave off the necessary recession which would have come at the end of the dot-com bubble bursting frenzy. However, one of the side effects has been the increase of the sovereign wealth fund investment in the US Market due to the massive dilution of the buying strength of the US peso as well as the bear rally from 2000-2007. Yes, I am calling it a bear rally because when all is said and done, I think we may see a retreat to 2000 era levels. Uneasy Graves 1. US Currency 2. Chinese investments in US securities Night of the Dread For the last twelve months, the Fed has been trying every idea it has to keep the growing miasma of fear from infecting the entire market. First it lowered rates after rates until there were concerns of sparking a hyper-inflationary cycle in some quarters. But in other quarters, notably China, where over a trillion US Pesos are residing currently - there has been a growing concern over the value of their investments. China’s central bank is in a bind. It has been on a buying binge in the United States over the last seven years, snapping up roughly $1 trillion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In fact, the Chinese central bank went on such a buying spree that they are now in a capital shortage situation. The central bank’s predicament has several repercussions. For one, it makes it less likely that China will allow the yuan to continue rising against the dollar, say central banking experts. and the China Investment Corp bought more than FNM/FRE: The Finance Ministry, however, has pushed for investments in overseas stocks. Last year, it wrested control of the $200 billion China Investment Corp., which had been bankrolled by the central bank. That corporation’s most publicized move, a $3 billion investment in the Blackstone Group in May of last year, has lost more than 43 percent of its value. Bankers estimate that $1 trillion of China’s total foreign exchange reserves of $1.8 trillion are in American securities. …. Still China finds itself hemmed in. If it were to curtail its purchases of dollar-denominated securities drastically, the dollar would likely fall and American interest rates could soar. …. Along with Treasuries, China has invested heavily in mortgage-backed bonds from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the struggling mortgage finance giants that are sponsored by the United States government. Standard & Poor’s estimates China’s holdings at $340 billion. The kicker to this is: He said the officials blamed the United States and believed the controversial assertions set forth in the book “Currency War,” a Chinese best seller published a year ago. The book suggests that the United States deliberately lured China into buying its securities knowing that they would later plunge in value. “A lot of policy makers in China, at least midlevel policy makers, believe this,” Shih said. The Takeaway A rising US currency and a backstopped (FNM: 0.73 -89.63%), (FRE: 0.88 -82.75%) do much to protect China and other market maker league investors but will push the Dow first higher, and then the steam will run out and the bloodletting that has been seen this week will be tame by comparison. One thing that I noted and no one else has commented on re: Extreme Value Theory that the ~300 pt moves were not common until within the last seven to ten years. As the dawn comes and shines it’s glare on the market - I expect 300 pt moves will be the norm, not the outlier. Theme Song You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video
• 
  http://londonriches.co.uk/?p=10704
  88 days ago in London Riches · Authority: 2

  Why nice girls don’t get rich - Independent Women in the workplace need to wise up. If you’re polite and fair at playing business, afraid to change jobs or don’t have assets in your own name, then chances are you’re not rich, not happy, and not living the life you want. That’s according to Dr My Convention Story - Spectator.org ST. PAUL — Okay, here’s my Republican Convention story. After I did my little tiny bit of reporting work from St. Paul’s Xcel Center on Wednesday, I got into a taxi to head back to my hotel. Of course we got stuck in traffic. I asked my driver, a Appellate judge questions Martha Stewart prosecutor about juror - Baltimore Sun NEW YORK - With Martha Stewart looking on, a federal appeals judge sharply questioned a prosecutor yesterday about why no hearing was held into allegations that a juror in the homemaking entrepreneur’s trial lied. The exchange took place as lawyers Qatar thwarts major drug trafficking op - ArabianBusiness.com Qatari authorities have seized 320kg of hashish, thwarting “one of the biggest drug trafficking operations” in the Gulf state, the official QNA news agency revealed on Friday. In a joint effort between the anti-narcotics department and several Young Republican Road Trip - MSN MoneyCentral Kerry Donnelly is a 21-year-old New Yorker, and she’s thrilled about voting in her first Presidential election for John McCain. The college senior identifies more with the policies of the 72-year-old senator than with the change promised by his The arts funding cloud - Globe and Mail Personally, I think Stephen Harper is calling an election now to get out from under the arts funding cloud - all the protests against his harsh cuts added onto leftover charges about trying to censor films. The issue has legs. It won’t go away as he Rich in reserves, Chinese central bank is short of capital - International Herald Tribune It has been on a buying binge in the United States over the last seven years, snapping up roughly $1 trillion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Those investments have been declining sharply in Ruling MPLA set to keep it grip on oil-rich Angola - Turkishpress.com A poster of the leader of MPLA (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola) Jose Eduardo dos Santos and ruling President of Angola is seen on a campaing billboard in downtown Luanda, on September 4. The former Portuguese colony is going for Can a 72-year-old rich white man be an agent of change? - Globe and Mail ST. PAUL, MINN. — When John McCain scanned Republican delegates last night, he saw the affluent, the elderly and the white, people very much like himself. Less than 2 per cent of the Republican delegates were black, compared with 12 per cent of the Full of Beans now ‘Grounds’ for Some Robust Photos - Caymen Net News People passing near the Full of Beans Coffee Shop on Smith Road often catch the rich aroma of freshly ground coffee. But from now until 2 October, if they decide to drop in for a fresh jolt of their favourite java, they’ll also have the opportunity
• 
  http://londonriches.co.uk/?p=10684
  88 days ago in London Riches · Authority: 2

  Ruling MPLA set to keep it grip on oil-rich Angola - Turkishpress.com A poster of the leader of MPLA (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola) Jose Eduardo dos Santos and ruling President of Angola is seen on a campaing billboard in downtown Luanda, on September 4. The former Portuguese colony is going for My Convention Story - Spectator.org ST. PAUL — Okay, here’s my Republican Convention story. After I did my little tiny bit of reporting work from St. Paul’s Xcel Center on Wednesday, I got into a taxi to head back to my hotel. Of course we got stuck in traffic. I asked my driver, a Qatar thwarts major drug trafficking op - ArabianBusiness.com Qatari authorities have seized 320kg of hashish, thwarting “one of the biggest drug trafficking operations” in the Gulf state, the official QNA news agency revealed on Friday. In a joint effort between the anti-narcotics department and several Appellate judge questions Martha Stewart prosecutor about juror - Baltimore Sun NEW YORK - With Martha Stewart looking on, a federal appeals judge sharply questioned a prosecutor yesterday about why no hearing was held into allegations that a juror in the homemaking entrepreneur’s trial lied. The exchange took place as lawyers The arts funding cloud - Globe and Mail Personally, I think Stephen Harper is calling an election now to get out from under the arts funding cloud - all the protests against his harsh cuts added onto leftover charges about trying to censor films. The issue has legs. It won’t go away as he Rich in reserves, Chinese central bank is short of capital - International Herald Tribune It has been on a buying binge in the United States over the last seven years, snapping up roughly $1 trillion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Those investments have been declining sharply in Full of Beans now ‘Grounds’ for Some Robust Photos - Caymen Net News People passing near the Full of Beans Coffee Shop on Smith Road often catch the rich aroma of freshly ground coffee. But from now until 2 October, if they decide to drop in for a fresh jolt of their favourite java, they’ll also have the opportunity Can a 72-year-old rich white man be an agent of change? - Globe and Mail ST. PAUL, MINN. — When John McCain scanned Republican delegates last night, he saw the affluent, the elderly and the white, people very much like himself. Less than 2 per cent of the Republican delegates were black, compared with 12 per cent of the Young Republican Road Trip - MSN MoneyCentral Kerry Donnelly is a 21-year-old New Yorker, and she’s thrilled about voting in her first Presidential election for John McCain. The college senior identifies more with the policies of the 72-year-old senator than with the change promised by his Why nice girls don’t get rich - Independent Women in the workplace need to wise up. If you’re polite and fair at playing business, afraid to change jobs or don’t have assets in your own name, then chances are you’re not rich, not happy, and not living the life you want. That’s according to Dr
• 
  http://londonriches.co.uk/?p=10683
  88 days ago in London Riches · Authority: 2

  Full of Beans now ‘Grounds’ for Some Robust Photos - Caymen Net News People passing near the Full of Beans Coffee Shop on Smith Road often catch the rich aroma of freshly ground coffee. But from now until 2 October, if they decide to drop in for a fresh jolt of their favourite java, they’ll also have the opportunity Rich in reserves, Chinese central bank is short of capital - International Herald Tribune It has been on a buying binge in the United States over the last seven years, snapping up roughly $1 trillion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Those investments have been declining sharply in Ruling MPLA set to keep it grip on oil-rich Angola - Turkishpress.com A poster of the leader of MPLA (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola) Jose Eduardo dos Santos and ruling President of Angola is seen on a campaing billboard in downtown Luanda, on September 4. The former Portuguese colony is going for Qatar thwarts major drug trafficking op - ArabianBusiness.com Qatari authorities have seized 320kg of hashish, thwarting “one of the biggest drug trafficking operations” in the Gulf state, the official QNA news agency revealed on Friday. In a joint effort between the anti-narcotics department and several Can a 72-year-old rich white man be an agent of change? - Globe and Mail ST. PAUL, MINN. — When John McCain scanned Republican delegates last night, he saw the affluent, the elderly and the white, people very much like himself. Less than 2 per cent of the Republican delegates were black, compared with 12 per cent of the My Convention Story - Spectator.org ST. PAUL — Okay, here’s my Republican Convention story. After I did my little tiny bit of reporting work from St. Paul’s Xcel Center on Wednesday, I got into a taxi to head back to my hotel. Of course we got stuck in traffic. I asked my driver, a Appellate judge questions Martha Stewart prosecutor about juror - Baltimore Sun NEW YORK - With Martha Stewart looking on, a federal appeals judge sharply questioned a prosecutor yesterday about why no hearing was held into allegations that a juror in the homemaking entrepreneur’s trial lied. The exchange took place as lawyers Young Republican Road Trip - MSN MoneyCentral Kerry Donnelly is a 21-year-old New Yorker, and she’s thrilled about voting in her first Presidential election for John McCain. The college senior identifies more with the policies of the 72-year-old senator than with the change promised by his

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