Afghanistan Horizon: 30,000 Divisions
While the White House experiences déjà vu after President Obama’s strategy for Afghanistan once again leaked to the press, the Pentagon must be relieved that deliberation over General McChrystal’s review is nearly complete. That sums up how Obama’s strategy will likely be greeted - with division.
Administration officials disclosed the source of 30,000 new troops in surprising detail: three Army brigades from the 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell, Ky. and the 10th Mountain Division at Fort Drum, N.Y. and a Marine brigade. Another 7,000 will defend ISAF’s new division headquarters in Kandahar. An official announcement isn’t expected until after Obama’s trip to Asia (Nov. 11-19), decreasing the odds that the White House willingly informed the press.
Obama stands to gain little by having his newest strategy batted around in public. Democrats generally opposed escalation before Hamid Karzai wiggled back into power, and must have cringed when Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Karzai’s legitimacy among Afghans was "at best, in question right now and, at worst, doesn't exist."
“If we don’t get a level of legitimacy and governance, then all the troops in the world aren’t going to make any difference,” he told the National Press Club.
Republicans can’t be any more enthused. 30,000 troops won’t satisfy them because General McChrystal’s strategy isn’t satisfied; McChrystal determined 20,000 troops pose a “high risk” of failure, 40,000 a “medium-risk, and 80,000 a “low risk.” Another delay will similarly rankle the GOP. With Afghanistan’s election over, now Obama wants to debate with America’s allies?
Shouldn’t he have been doing that all along?
President Obama faces additional obstacles to his political support. Waiting until after Asia is a calculated attempt to drum up troops and resources from Europe. McClatchy reports, “The administration... wants to avoid creating the impression - at home and abroad - that the U.S. ‘is going it alone’ in Afghanistan, said one military official.” But with Canada and the Netherlands due to withdraw in 2011 and Britain, Germany, France, Italy, and Australia restrained by domestic pressure, Obama will be hard pressed to evade the impression of “going it alone.”
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