Once Again, the Skewed Polls are Telling Conflicting Stories - Page 2
This is not out of bounds.
Over at The American Prospect, Jeffrey Lord points out that media kept citing flawed polls in the 1980 election between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.
Lord wrote this about a New York Times article claiming Reagan had an uphill battle to win Ohio (sounds familiar huh):
The New York Times headline was: Ohio Race Expected to Be Close As Labor Mobilizes for President
“The narrative for Ohio? Ohio, the paper explained, had been "long viewed by Ronald Reagan's campaign as its best opportunity to capture a major Northern state" but "such a victory …is not yet in hand." Then came the inevitable New York Times/CBS polling data. Reagan was ahead by a bare 2 points, 36% to 34%. Two-thirds of the undecided were women and Reagan was doing "much worse among women voters than men." Carter on the other hand had the great news that ‘35 percent of the undecided came from labor union households, a group that divides nearly 2-1 for Mr. Carter among those who have made up their minds."’
“What happened? Reagan beat Carter by over 10 points in Ohio. Yet another 'crucial state' race wasn't even close to being close as the paper had insisted.”
Lord goes down a list of polls that did this in the 1980 election. As we all know, Reagan won that race in a landslide. That year, the media kept saying Carter was going to win, but all those polls were way off, even the ones that came out the day before the election.
Do not take me wrong here; I am not claiming that Romney is going to win this race by a landslide. 1980 was a different time. The Electoral College is set up this year in a way that makes Obama's job much easier. Romney’s path is not an easy one, but it is one that can be done. George W. Bush did it in 2004. If Republicans can bring more of their base to the polls, and a sizable chunk of the electorate decides the Obama’s economy is growing too slow to give him another term, then Romney will win this.
Additionally, the debates could also swing the race towards the challenger. Sometimes voters just want to know the challenger can hold his own against the incumbent. This lets them know that the challenger is presidential, and that they know their stuff. That is why Romney has spent so much time preparing for the debates.