Prediction: Obama will be re-elected in November
[Photo: Associated Press]
I derive a certain perverse pleasure in trying to predict certain future events and in waiting to see if they come true. So here goes...drum roll: Barack Obama will get re-elected in November. Yes, despite an approval rating of only 44%, Obama will be re-elected for the simple fact that, in the “poker game” of politics, the Republicans have too weak a hand to seriously challenge him. Moreover, with the economy showing some signs of life, voters will be apt to stick to the status quo, even with a relatively unpopular incumbent, rather than gamble on someone else behind the helm. (Remember when the unpopular George Bush ran for re-election: too many voters were skittish about changing leadership in the middle of war in Iraq.)
Secondly, the two most likely contenders for the Republican ticket, Romney and Gingrich have “disqualified” themselves from being viable threats to Obama in the long run. Romney is a mega-rich patrician, who apparently has no problem paying only 15% in income taxes. Too many struggling middle-class Americans will take issue with that; moreover, many will view Romney as too wealthy to truly identify with the majority middle-class. (Remember how Senator John Kerry lost to the unpopular Bush largely because too many Americans perceived him as an out-of-touch blueblood.)
Additionally, Romney will not pass the test of close scrutiny, and the closer to the white house, the closer that scrutiny will be. For one, his tendency to flip-flop of certain key issues will undermine his bid for the presidency. Secondly, it will become increasingly clear that Romney’s religious convictions will guide his policy making, despite his many sound bites to the contrary. After all, a man who went overseas as a youth to proselytize others to his religion (Romney’s Mormon mission in France), will hardly separate church from state in his decision making, despite trying to mask some of his core religious beliefs from the public eye. In reality, I believe there is no way Romney would ever be pro-choice, and he has even admitted that he does not support gay marriage. (There goes the gay vote and some of the women’s votes.) Moreover, many will believe (as I) that Romney would say or do most anything to become president, but once in office...
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