Republican Polls Summary: It’s Gettin’ Ugly - Page 2
The latest CNN-Time poll provides confirming evidence that religious intolerance plays a significant role in conservative voting patterns. While Gingrich polls among “born-again Christians” in the same percentages in his overall total, Romney gets only about half as much support from Iowa’s big evangelical community as from other Iowa Republicans. As WaPo’s Chris Cilizza notes, “Of all the different groups in the poll (old, young, rich, poor, men, women, etc.), none gives Romney a lower share of the vote than born-again Christians.” Although one can certainly argue a different cause, the differences are statistically significant. And if you don’t believe that religious bigotry plays a role in conservative ideology, just ask an atheist.
The most recent Washington Post-ABC poll of likely Iowa Republican Caucus voters pretty much confirms CNN’s findings. Likely voters break for Gingrich by nearly 2-1. Still, Gingrich’s support still tops out at one third of likely caucus goers.
And that brings us to the most interesting data in the WaPo poll. One third of likely Iowa caucus goers—an amount equal to all of Gingrich’s support—say there is a good chance they’ll change their mind by caucus day. When added to those who say that there is a less likely (but possible) chance they’d switch, over half of voters still haven’t locked in for any candidate.
Lastly, Gallup reports that only “half (49%) of Republicans now say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in next year's presidential election, down from 58% in September.” And in Gallup’s new daily tracking poll (12/8) Gingrich is down two points (34%) while Romney is up two (25%). Paul, Bachmann, Perry and even Santorum are also up.
Sorry Democrats, Candidate Newt Gingrich is still no sure thing. But what started out as an unwinnable election for Obama is starting to look like it could become his to lose.