Day 5: Twitter, Global Impact and the Future Of Blogging - SOTB 2009 - Page 2

Blogging’s Global Impact and the Future of Blogging

By Dave Hughes, Business Manager and Robert Kellman, Middle East Business Director, Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates

As blogs mature and their influence and readership grow, the medium is emerging as a powerful tool for journalists and activists alike. Perhaps nowhere was blogging’s growing influence more apparent than during this year’s protests of the presidential election in Iran. Reporters Without Borders has described Iran as “the biggest prison for journalists in the Middle East,” and over forty newspapers have been banned there in the last five years. During the contested Iranian elections earlier this year, Iran banned journalists from moving around the country and blocked Facebook, Twitter, and a host of other popular websites. In this setting, disenfranchised Iranis have often turned to the blogosphere to engage in commentary critical of the regime. However, this tactic is not without its risks, as in 2003 Iran became the first nation to imprison a blogger for blogging. Nevertheless many bloggers see the protests of the Iranian revolution as a watershed moment for the medium – deeming the blogosphere both a key driver of the protests and a news source more reliable than the traditional media on the topic.

In the United States, blogging was an integral piece of the 2008 presidential campaign, where it was a key forum for citizen commentary on everything from Sarah Palin’s clothes to healthcare policy. On average, respondents think that the blogosphere was as accurate as traditional media sources on the presidential election and that it was, in some cases, much more up to date. Further, many bloggers believe that blogging was a big reason Obama enjoyed a significant fundraising advantage throughout the campaign. While only 15% of bloggers believe blogs were the deciding factor in Obama’s victory, nearly 3 in 5 believe their political influence will grow substantially as we move closer to the 2012 campaign.

When it comes to complex policy issues, the blogosphere’s impact is immediate and noticeable. Many bloggers have written about the current financial crisis and subsequent global bailouts. The blogosphere helped interpret the economic chaos for a nervous and confused public and often served to humanize the policy discussions taking place around the world. But the blogosphere can, in some contexts, be double-edged: with a sizable minority relying on the blogosphere for up to the minute news regarding the financial crisis, some believe that the blogosphere actually contributed to a sense of panic and exacerbated the financial crisis.

What the Data Says

Bloggers believe that politics and business are among the fields most impacted by the blogosphere, and that they will continue to be transformed by the blogosphere going forward.





Even though politics and business are significant drivers of the conversation in the blogosphere, it’s important to remember that it is large and diverse – as demonstrated by the relatively small percentage of bloggers who wrote about the US Presidential election, the financial crisis, and the Iranian election protests.


Nevertheless, bloggers believe their influence as voices for dissent around the world is growing. 51% believe it will be a more effective tool to voice dissent in the future and 39% believe blogs made the Iranian protests earlier this year more effective.


More people relied upon the traditional media (30%) for coverage and analysis of the 2008 United States presidential campaign than relied on the blogosphere (24%), but 60% believe that the blogosphere will have a greater impact on the election in 2012. Respondents also think that the blogosphere was about as reliable and accurate as was the traditional media during the election. But though 46% believe that blogs were a big reason why Barack Obama had a fundraising advantage during the election, only 15% agree that the blogosphere was the deciding factor in his defeat of John McCain.


38% believe that the blogosphere will have a greater impact on individuals’ understanding of the financial markets in the future than it did during the financial crisis. But the traditional media is still a favored source for financial coverage, with 28% of respondents naming it as a reliable source of information – compared to only 14% for blogs. During the crisis, respondents believe that the traditional media was only slightly more accurate than were blogs during the crisis and 21% think that the blogosphere actually contributed to an atmosphere of panic during the crisis.


Impact

The Internet in general and blogging in particular have expanded the marketplace of ideas into the global community. By encouraging discussion and collaboration, blogs contribute to rapid identification of situations that need to be addressed.

More generally, blogging is the next step in a process of advancing communication from radio to TV to internet messaging. The breadth and depth of the blogosphere allows sophisticated information – and special expertise – enhanced range. Comments and follow-up posts allow for original ideas to be refined and perfected even as they are spreading around the world. This gives blogs a power that TV and radio simply don’t have. A blogger can call for a protest and, within minutes, hundreds of people can RSVP.

While blog postings often focus on the local issues of the specific blogger, the audience of such blogs is much less limited than other forms of media have been historically. An internet-connected world has expanded the marketplace of ideas available to any individual anywhere. Importantly, the converse of this is also true: any individual anywhere can speak on any topic to a rapt global community.

All of this has converged into a new trend driven by the blogosphere: the globalization of freedom of speech, leading to a more informed, more tolerant, more democratic society. As blogs gain traction amongst a wider and more educated following, their essence as an ungoverned, uncontrolled medium for exchange will continue to grow beyond the reach of borders and governments. The next generation of blogs will be more action oriented, not just commenting on real time events, but driving those events.

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