Did Facebook Really Get Unfriended? New Report Says No. - Page 2
How could Inside Facebook be so off the mark? Facebook send out a media release, providing some insight. “Some of these reports use data extracted from our advertising tool, which provides broad estimates on the reach of Facebook ads and isn’t designed to be a source for tracking the overall growth of Facebook.”
I’ve included a chart from Inside Facebook’s website, showing all of the tracking tools measured, along with my own line delineating an average growth rate over time, based on all tools used. My data line has been drawn in black.
Before we all jump on the “Inside Facebook’s got some ‘splaining to do” bandwagon, they admit that their measuring tool Gold has some bugs to work out. Regardless of whether or not they have programming or reporting issues to get rid of, Inside Facebook’s latest article provides some interesting facts about Facebook’s overall growth rate, and what to expect in future years.
According to Comscore’s information, over 72% of all Internet users in the United States logged into Facebook last month. If 60 million more people sign up for the service in the U.S., Facebook will reach an unheard-of almost total domestic saturation. Over half of Canada’s Internet users have a Facebook profile. No matter what, the growth numbers here will have to begin a slow downturn, as well as in other nations with strong Facebook membership.
So what makes Facebook’s walled garden grow? As other countries around the world are introduced to our favorite time-stealer, new global users flock in to friend us all. According to Inside Facebook, once 50% of a market is reached by an online product, expect growth rates to decline and eventually stop. Until their smaller markets reach that magic number, expect desirable growth rates to continue as emerging Facebook using nations Brazil, India, Colombia and Thailand begin creating their own happy Farmville communities.
So for now, Facebook seems to be alive and kicking, evolving to stay fresh amidst controversy and privacy concerns. Eventually, however, expect Facebook’s growth to begin lagging, unless it can get its foot in the door of China’s multi-billion user market. Once that happens, expect both an enormous uptick in new users, as well as an exodus by others worried about what concessions Facebook may give to the Chinese government, in order to continue closely monitoring its citizens.