Calafia

Welcome to the 'Calafia' tag page at Technorati. This page features content from the farthest reaches of the Blogosphere that authors have "tagged" with 'Calafia'.

Latest blogosphere posts tagged “Calafia”

• Markets Are Still Pessimistic

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: These two charts record the most dramatic rally in the corporate bond market in modern history, and its far from being over. Earlier this year, when spreads were at their peak, the market was effectively forecasting that a deep depression and a global deflation ...
  2 days ago

• Why We Need Fresh Blood at the Fed

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Fed Chairman Bernanke Monday morning attempted to answer everyones most pressing concerns about monetary policy, the economy, and inflation. Bernankes answers revealed a lot about his system of beliefs. From my perspective, he has some problems. Theres really nothing new here, but ...
  2 days ago

• So Many (Non-)Taxpayers With No Skin in the Game

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: To sum up the facts put together by The Tax Foundation and TaxProf Blog : One third of those filing tax returns in 2007 paid zero income tax, while about half of those received money from the government. Since 15 million workers did not earn enough to be required to file a return, ...
  2 days ago

• Financial Conditions Almost Back to Normal

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Heres an updated chart of financial conditions as measured by Bloomberg. (See more background for this here .) Note the spectacular improvement in this index over the past year. Financial conditions (e.g., credit spreads, implied volatility, interest rates) today are ...
  2 days ago

• Another V-Sign

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Heres yet another update to this chart Ive shown many times. This chart shows the ratio of weekly unemployment claims to the total number of jobs according to the establishment survey. The improvement in this ratio is at least as dramatic as what we saw in the V-shaped recovery ...
  6 days ago

• Markets are Watching the Employment Situation Closely

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Fridays November jobs report arguably marks a turning point in the markets perception of reality. Revisions to previous months added 159,000 jobs according to the establishment survey; when combined with the loss of only 11,000 jobs in November, the economy (presumably, if you ...
  6 days ago

• What Commodity Prices Tell Us About the Economic Outlook

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: This chart shows the average price of "raw industrial" commodities, and it doesnt include most of the commodities that you might associate with speculative activities. As of Thursday, the index was only 10% below its all-time high, which was set in May 08. This represents a ...
  6 days ago

• Job Creation: Government Needs to Get Out of the Way

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: As the Obama administration holds its jobs summit, I would like to make a contribution to the debate. To begin with, consider this chart, which takes the monthly establishment survey of jobs and breaks it down into two components: public sector (federal, state and ...
  6 days ago

• Gold Becomes More Vulnerable As It Rises

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Gold prices seem to rising at a parabolic rate, which suggests that the market is just a tad bit too bullish. Gold could continue its run, but as we approach the levels (in constant dollar terms) that we saw in 1980, gold becomes extremely vulnerable to anything ...
  1 week ago

• Corporate Layoffs Vanish, Job Losses Decline

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Ive been showing this chart since early this year, saying that it was a good indicator of improvement in the economy. Corporate layoff announcements (which are presumably a fairly accurate gauge of distress in the large corporate sector of the economy) are now down to ...
  1 week ago

• Another V Sign: Sharp Upturn in Consumer Spending

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: As a supply-sider, consumer spending is not one of the things that I pay a lot of attention to. Spending is the by-product of production, so its better to know whether jobs are increasing or likely to increase, and whether people are working harder and/or more productively, than ...
  2 weeks ago

• Capital Spending Has Yet to Get Off the Ground

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: New orders for capital goods, the "seed corn" for future productivity gains, fell in October, and so far this year they are up only modestly (5.5%) from the low of earlier this year. It would appear that businesses are not in a rush to invest their rising profits. The ...
  2 weeks ago

• Are Fed MBS Purchases Really Holding Mortgage Rates Down?

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: This chart from Bloomberg shows the option-adjusted spread (OAS) on current coupon Ginnie Mae MBS, as calculated by Merrill Lynch ( BAC ). Spreads peaked about a year ago, just after the Fed began its quantitative easing program which ended up more than doubling the monetary ...
  2 weeks ago

• Mortgage Valuation: How Much Is Due to Fed Purchases?

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: This chart from Bloomberg shows the option-adjusted spread (OAS) on current coupon Ginnie Mae MBS, as calculated by Merrill Lynch. Spreads peaked about a year ago, just after the Fed began its quantitative easing program which ended up more than doubling the monetary base. ...
  2 weeks ago

• More Foreclosure Sales, Please

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: With the surge in sales activity, the number of unsold homes on the market is falling rapidly. Recovery skeptics keep arguing that there is a second "wave" of foreclose properties that is set to hit the market sometime in the next several months. Banks are said to be ...
  2 weeks ago

• Rising Gold, Flat Dollar Indicate Spread of Inflation Threat

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Im a fan of keeping things in perspective. Theres been lots of attention recently on the decline in the dollar and the rising price of gold, with the Feds easy money providing the common denominator. But as this chart shows, the dollar has been flat for the past month, ...
  2 weeks ago

• Commodities Rallying: A Good Indicator of Global Growth

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Here are two more charts to add to my commodity reflation recap post from Wednesday. The first chart is the Journal of Commerce index of 18 industrial commodities; the second chart is the textile subset of this same index. I think its quite interesting that textile ...
  2 weeks ago

• More Good News for U.S. Exports

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Heres an updated version of a chart Ive been showing for awhile, which suggests that outbound container shipments from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are a good leading indicator for U.S. goods exports. The most recent news shows that container shipments are still going ...
  2 weeks ago

• Fed Policy and TIPS Yields

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: This post is a follow up to my post from Thursday on TIPS valuations . The purpose of this chart is to show that real yields on TIPS are largely determined/driven by changing expectations for Fed monetary policy. The red line represents the real yield on 5-year TIPS, and the blue ...
  2 weeks ago

• Why are T-Bill Yields Again Approaching Zero?

  
  SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page — Authority: 635
  Calafia Beach Pundit submits: Yields on 3-month T-bills have gone to zero once again. The last time this happened was in December of last year. At that time, the world was in full panic mode, with markets braced for a double-deep depression and years of deflation. The stock market was about 20% lower than it ...
  2 weeks ago

Comments about Calafia