australian politics

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Latest blogosphere posts tagged “australian politics”

  • Australia’s Emissions Trading Legislation Political Football


    PA Pundits - InternationalAuthority Authority: 549
    With all the talk currently about the massive Health Care Bill, those other 2 Bills regarding the ‘perceived’ threat of Carbon Dioxide emissions may slide a little into the background. We need reminding that just because they are not at the forefront of the news, they are still important. Those two Bills, the ...
    5 hours ago
  • What if you were a pollster and produced an outlier?


    PollyticsAuthority Authority: 540
    Would you publish? We know outliers are inevitable, they’re something that cannot be avoided – but from a pollster’s perspective, running a poll where your results look a little iffy becomes a bit of a two edged sword. Regardless of whether they publish or not, ultimately they lose in the short term. If they ...
    9 hours ago
  • Why I’ve gone back in, after getting out


    Andrew BartlettAuthority Authority: 539
    I usually try to avoid blogging in an overly partisan party political way (as opposed to expressing an opinion about specific issues). However, given the interest some have expressed in my decision to throw in my lot as a House of Representatives candidate for the Greens after having spent twenty years with a ...
    10 hours ago
  • Essential Report – political approval and the economy


    PollyticsAuthority Authority: 540
    This week’s Essential Report has the primaries coming in 48 (down 1) /35 (steady) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 59/41 the same way – no change since last week. The Greens are on 9 (up 1) while the broad “Others” are sitting on 8 (steady) . This comes from a two week ...
    14 hours ago
  • How to stop the boat peoples while saving face for KRudd and make some money out of it


    IAIN HALLAuthority Authority: 129
    The current delemma involving Alex (the fake scum) and his 70 odd boat peoples stuck on an Aussie ship off Indonesia, while they refuse to take them and KRudd refuses to let them have Christmas on Christmas Island, has given me a great idea of how to solve this ongoing problem and for everybodie to [...]
    1 day ago
  • Choleric Economic Man


    Scandalum MagnatumAuthority Authority: 103
    Recessions are part of human nature, says Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens [pdf]:No country has managed to eliminate the business cycle. No country ever will, because the cycle is driven by human psychology, which finds expression in financial behaviour as well as ‘real’ behaviour. We are seemingly just made ...
    1 day ago
  • Asylum Seeker Polling – Three Pollsters


    PollyticsAuthority Authority: 540
    Today we have some results on the public perception of asylum seeker policy issues from both Newspoll and Nielsen. When combined with last week’s Essential Report questions on the same issue, all three pollsters turn out to be pretty consistent with each other, only differing by amounts we’d expect from slightly ...
    1 day ago
  • Honeymoon Restored


    PollyticsAuthority Authority: 540
    Not that it actually stopped to begin with, we have this months Nielsen today in Fairfax ( demographic tables here ) coming in with the primaries running 45 (down 1) / 38 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44 the same way – a one point increase to the Coalition since the last ...
    1 day ago
  • New Pollytrend Metric – Phone Pollster Trend


    PollyticsAuthority Authority: 540
    We all know about our Pollytrend chart – where we build a rolling average of the most recent poll from each pollster weighted by sample size, then run an aggressive locally weighted polynomial regression through the results to give us an adaptive trend line. While Pollytrend is good for picking up medium term shifts ...
    2 days ago
  • The fence sitters delima


    IAIN HALLAuthority Authority: 129
    Now this is a turn up for the books, who would have thought that the spokesman for the boat load of Sri Lankians detained by the Indonesians is not what he claims to be?You can bet the Latte Sippers who want to insist that every claimant is Kosher will be trying very hard to avoid [...]
    3 days ago
  • Morgan Adds Outlier Weight to Newspoll


    PollyticsAuthority Authority: 540
    Morgan has cheekily come in a week early , giving us the first week of what is usually a two week Face to Face poll with the primaries running 51 (down 1) /32.5 (down 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 the same way – a half a point increase to Labor. The Greens are on 9.5 ...
    4 days ago
  • Take them at their word


    IAIN HALLAuthority Authority: 129
    I “love” the way that my Latte sipping friends want to insist that Islam and its nutters do not want to conquer the world . Mainly because it seems to me to be a valiant imitation of the ostrich’s defensive head burying behaviour. The fact of the matter is that among the motivated believers  a [...]
    4 days ago
  • Pollytrend and Odds and Ends


    PollyticsAuthority Authority: 540
    Throwing the last polling cycle’s worth of data into the Pollytrend algorithm, we can see that Newspoll produced no discernible change in the trend line – which is to be expected, since our trend here measures how all polls move together and it can adapt to outliers. Also worth having a squiz at are three ...
    5 days ago
  • Drink driving


    IAIN HALLAuthority Authority: 129
    When I was active in the Apex Club one of our members worked as a delivery driver for a lagre soft drink company and his name badge proudly proclaimed that he was a “Drink Driver”, The double entendre of that badge made all of us laugh most heartily. Of course driving while pissed is never [...]
    5 days ago
  • Down and UP


    IAIN HALLAuthority Authority: 129
    Although I enjoy the security of owning my own home I have a great deal of respect for the idea of public housing that is available to people at a reasonable rent and with secure long term tenancy, If you leave aside the investment potential of home ownership the most important thing that everyone needs [...]
    5 days ago
  • Outliers Outliers – get’em while they’re hot!


    PollyticsAuthority Authority: 540
    Today’s Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries tied at 41 a piece with the ALP down 7 and the Coalition up 7 . This washes out into a two party preferred of 52/48 – a 7 point change from last Newspoll. The Greens are steady on 10 while the broad “Others” are unchanged on 8 . This comes ...
    1 week ago
  • First big polling on Asylum Seeker issue


    PollyticsAuthority Authority: 540
    This weeks Essential Report has the primaries running 49 (down 1) / 35 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 59/41 the same way – steady since last week. The Greens are on 8 (steady) , while the broad “Others” are up 1 to 8 . The missing point is due to rounding. This ...
    1 week ago
  • The economics of refugee flows


    Andrew LeighAuthority Authority: 121
    With some notable exceptions , the Australian public debate over refugees has so far been conducted largely in an evidence-free zone. So I’ve asked my colleague Tim Hatton to send me through his recent writings on the topic. Tim has written two papers for high-ranking economics journals on the factors driving ...
    1 week ago
  • NSW State Polling


    PollyticsAuthority Authority: 540
    Newspoll over the weekend via The Oz released another rather hideous poll for the NSW government showing the primaries running 42 (up 1) / 30 (down 2) to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – a 1 point increase to the Opposition over the last 2 months. The Greens ...
    1 week ago
  • Victoria State Polling


    PollyticsAuthority Authority: 540
    The Newspoll site (and presumably somewhere at The Oz) has a new Victorian State poll out with the primaries running 43 (steady) /35 (down 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 57/43 the same way – a 1 point gain to the Labor party over the last two monts. The Greens are on 15 (up ...
    1 week ago

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