economic outlook

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  • The Evolving Role of the Banking Systems in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe


    Authority Authority:
    By Reza Moghadam What has been the role of foreign banks in financing growth and convergence in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, and how is that role changing? This is discussed in the first issue of a new series of analytical work on the region called Regional Economic Issues , which we launched at a ...
    1 week ago
  • Iran’s Presidential Election In June A Crucial Event


    Risk WatchdogAuthority Authority: 135
    Iran will hold presidential elections on June 14, and this will test the country’s political stability and appetite for confrontation with the West and Israel. The incumbent president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has generally pursued a confrontational policy towards the US and Israel, but he is not eligible for a third ...
    1 week ago
  • BMI Global Economic And Market Strategy Update


    Risk WatchdogAuthority Authority: 135
    Global Macro Update:  This month, we look at recent trends in global production, credit, consumption, and trade. Our short-term indicators of economic activity suggest that growth has been flat-to-moderate in the first few months of 2013, with the eurozone representing the most significant source of weakness. ...
    1 week ago
  • What’s the point?


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    There’s an old Red Indian, or perhaps I should say Native American, proverb which states that if you find yourself mounted on a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount. It is with this approach in mind that I have decided to cease commenting on the economy, climate change, the Eurozone and the EU. I am not ...
    1 week ago
  • After a Golden Decade, Can Latin America Keep Its Luster?


    Authority Authority:
    By Alejandro Werner (Version in Español  and  Português ) Latin America continues to be one of the fastest growing regions in the world, even though growth slowed down a bit in 2012. Many economies in the region are operating at or near potential, inflation remains generally low, and unemployment is at ...
    1 week ago
  • GCC GDP expected at 5.5%; Inflation in control


    Authority Authority:
    · GDP growth in GCC expected at 5.5% and 3.7% in 2012 & 2013 respectively · Public debt to GDP ratio to decline to 11.4% in 2013 compared to 11.8% in 2012 · GCC exports rose by 6.8% and imports by 8.5% in 2012 · Inflation stays in control despite healthy growth in money supply [...] Follow us on Twitter ...
    1 week ago
  • Economic Indicators – Still Cruising on Neutral


    Authority Authority:
    Economic Indicators Roundup (May 6, 2013) Economic indicators are everywhere, so this is kind of like a dashboard that I like to follow.  For each indicator, I will try to give you a brief description, the latest reading and what I understand to be its implications.  For simplicity, I will assign each a rating of ...
    1 week ago
  • Nigeria: Evaluating Sub-National Economic Divisions


    Risk WatchdogAuthority Authority: 135
    With nearly 170 million people and a GDP of around US$300bn, Nigeria has a larger population and economy than the 30 smallest African countries combined. Given Nigeria’s size and diversity, it is important to examine the internal regions of West Africa’s largest economy. In this week’s Business Monitor ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Russia’s Economy Facing Downside Risks


    Risk WatchdogAuthority Authority: 135
    Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent hawkish rhetoric implies tighter fiscal and monetary policies than we have anticipated. This has prompted us to lower our 2013 real GDP growth forecast from 3.6% to 2.6% – quite a slowdown from the 3.6% increase in 2012. While this downgrade is substantial, it reflects ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Premier’s Economic Outlook forecasts higher IT spending


    Authority Authority:
    Hospitals and health systems nationwide are projecting a significant shift in 2013 admissions from inpatient to outpatient settings as they transition toward new care delivery models, according to the Premier healthcare alliance’s spring 2013 Economic Outlook. Only 35 percent of 530 survey respondents – primarily ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Aadhaar’s Direct cash transfer scheme to save 0.5% of the GDP


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    Direct cash transfer through Aadhaar will help Indian government save 0.5 percent of the GDP.   International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the service will be of great benefit to the Indian GDP. “The total savings could be substantial: if the combination of direct cash transfer and Aadhaar eliminates the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Two Eurozone Stock Markets To Watch


    Risk WatchdogAuthority Authority: 135
    The technical outlook for Spanish and German stocks could hold the key to the medium-term macro and market direction for the eurozone. While we remain broadly neutral towards Spanish stocks, which have been in a downtrend for the past five years, we believe a break above resistance at 8,400 for the IBEX index could ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Afghanistan’s Economy Heading For ‘Hard Landing’, But Somalia Looking Better


    Risk WatchdogAuthority Authority: 135
    Afghanistan’s economy is heading for a sharp slowdown, as we explain in Business Monitor Online and the next edition of our monthly South Asia Monitor publication. The Afghan economy has grown at an impressive clip, averaging around 9% or so over the past decade, but this is unsustainable, given that the ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Latin America: Global Rebalancing To Prompt A Secular Shift In Export Trends


    Risk WatchdogAuthority Authority: 135
    Our most recent Latin American economic themes article looks at export growth. In short, we expect all major economies in the region with the exception of Mexico to see weaker export growth between 2013 and 2022 than in the last decade. We continue to believe that global rebalancing pressures will cause a secular ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Economic Indicators – Sluggish, Like a Wet Sponge


    Authority Authority:
    Economic Indicators Roundup (April 22, 2013) Economic indicators are everywhere, so this is kind of like a dashboard that I like to follow.  For each indicator, I will try to give you a brief description, the latest reading and what I understand to be its implications.  For simplicity, I will assign each a rating ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Leading Indicators vs August 2013 – Easynomics Court


    Authority Authority:
    Leading Indicators vs August 2013 – Easynomics Court For an explanation on “Easynomics Court” and how it works, read this page on  leading indicators vs six months into the future . NOTE: In case you are accessing this post long after it was originally posted, you may also be interested in the most recent ...
    4 weeks ago
  • Weekly US unemployment aid applications rise to 352K, a level consistent with modest hiring


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    WASHINGTON –  The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits increased just 4,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 352,000. The slight gain kept applications at a level consistent with solid hiring and suggests March’s sluggish hiring may be temporary. The Labor Department report released Thursday also ...
    4 weeks ago
  • BDC Economic Outlook 2013: Lethbridge Gets an Up-Close Look At What’s to Come for Canada and Alberta


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    This afternoon I attended The BDC Economic Outlook: A forecast of the Canadian and Albertan Economies, sponsored by the Lethbridge Chamber of Commerce. Pierre Cléroux, BDC Vice President and Chief Economist, offered a concise and thorough overview of where we’ve been and where we might be going, provincially and ...
    4 weeks ago
  • Alphabetti Spaghetti


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    There has been an acronymtastic set of reports this week from the IEA, IMF, and EIA. So from these nine letters come six charts out of three reports. Alphabetti spaghetti indeed.  First up is the IMF’s World Economic Outlook , which highlights a couple of key trends through some simple graphics. This first one ...
    4 weeks ago
  • Highlights from the Fed’s US economic survey


    Authority Authority:
    A strong housing recovery and solid auto sales helped the U.S. economy grow at a moderate pace from late February through early April.
    4 weeks ago

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