nate silver

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  • Another Great Nate Debate: Sanford And Run


    Authority Authority:
    Nate Silver makes the argument that Mark Sanfords various scandals did cost him dearly in this weeks special election, just not enough to actually cost him the race . It would be wrong to conclude that voters did not punish Mr. Sanford at all for his extramarital affair. In fact, a reasonable number of voters did ...
    1 week ago
  • How to tell if you’re lucky, or good


    Authority Authority:
    [Please read all the way to the end before making snap judgments.] A reader asked me recently if I might elaborate on a passage in End Game, where I mention chance having a role to play in life outcomes. I am happy to do so. In order to carry out this experiment, you’ll need the following: […]
    1 week ago
  • Youth vote down significantly in 2012 elections, erasing much of gains in 2004/2008


    Authority Authority:
    The 2012 Current Population Survey November supplement has now been released which enables one to examine voting patterns by different racial and ethnic groups and different age groups. Youth turnout among those ages 18-24 dropped 7.3 percentage points from 2008 to 2012, to 41.2%. This contravenes a CIRCLE report ...
    1 week ago
  • Big Data: Only as Insightful as Those Analysing It


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    I went to hear Nate Silver speak last Tuesday as part of his UK speaking tour. You may have heard of him: an American statistician, pollster and data nerd (I’m not mocking him: there was a bloke in the audience with that written on a T-shirt. I sort of coveted it.) He correctly predicted the outcome of the most ...
    1 week ago
  • Monday Q&A: The New York Times’ new head of video production on plans for growth


    Authority Authority:
    Rebecca Howard occupies a unique position at The New York Times. She came to the paper with experience from the AOL/Huffington Post video department and Fox Digital Studios, where she has worked on both branded and original content. Now she holds one of very few positions at the Times — and maybe in the industry ...
    1 week ago
  • When Worlds Collide


    Stealthmode BlogAuthority Authority: 116
    Yoga is the place I go to disconnect. Admittedly I have been known to check my phone for messages if I leave the yoga room for any reason, but in the room I never do.  I’m not one of the people whose phone rings randomly in mid-pose because I forgot to put it on vibrate. Lately I’ve been wearing fitness ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Applied Nate Silver – Unexpected/Unexplained pattern


    DailyDouqAuthority Authority: 135
    Lately I’ve been having an unpleasant feeling in the morning when I do my weigh-ins. The first number I see looks “good” (meaning what I want, i.e. lower than previous day) but then the numbers bounce up. By the time I’ve got enough for an average I’m feeling low because once again I’m stuck on a plateau, ...
    2 weeks ago
  • You Have a Monkey Brain – and Other Truths PR Pros Should Know About Data


    Authority Authority:
    Even if you’re not a statistics whiz, everyone in public relations today needs to understand the big picture challenges of looking at data. As PR pros, part of our job is to analyze the success of strategies and tactics (our own and those of others) and make recommendations to our clients. Among other things, ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The Best Bits From the 2013 HCI Human Capital Summit


    The Hiring SiteAuthority Authority: 135
    If you’re still lamenting the end of the 2013 HCI Human Capital Summit, you can dry those eyes and slowly take down your #hcsummitshrine: We’ve rounded up our favorite tips, quotes and ideas from the conference below: More power leads to less perspective. As author Daniel Pink said, “The more power ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Applied Nate Silver – now what? – 3


    DailyDouqAuthority Authority: 135
    I think I can definitely say I’ve “hit bottom” on the rapid weight loss after the rapid gain during vacation. I’m now only 0.1lb above my previous low and ready to resume my steady loss that requires strict attention to severe diet plus all the exercise. The good news is I’ve got my real bike back and the ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Quote of the Day (April 25, 2013)


    The Baseball ContinuumAuthority Authority: 144
    Today’s quote comes from pollster (and former baseball sabermatrician) Nate Silver: Any one game in baseball doesn’t tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn’t tell you that much.
    3 weeks ago
  • Nutritionism, orthorexia, and metabolic syndrome as disease du jour


    DailyDouqAuthority Authority: 135
    This is the first of what I hope to have as a series of mini-essays on these related topics. If you’ve been following my posts under the Nate Silver tag I’ve certainly been obsessed with weight loss and eating and simultaneously very skeptical of most, if not all, of the nutrition information. I happened to see ...
    3 weeks ago
  • The Signal and the Noise


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    Ive just finished reading Nate Silver s The Signal and the Noise , with mixed impressions. On the one hand, it is overall a pleasant read and the first best-seller starring Bayes theorem (I wrote about this point before ). Any book that keeps professional statisticians busy guessing whether the author is a true ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Daily Must Reads, April 24, 2013


    Authority Authority:
    The best stories across the web on media and technology, curated by Julie Keck. 1. Three things Reddit did right during the Boston bombings and why that matters (PaidContent.org) 2. AP Twitter hack preceded by phishing attempt, news org says (TechCrunch) 3. Up Late with Nate Silver? The New York ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Perseverance Increases Skill Increases Luck: “The Harder I Work, The Luckier I Get”


    Authority Authority:
    Samuel Goldwyn Thomas Jefferson Samuel Goldwyn recast Thomas Jefferson’s earlier observation: “ I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it .” Michael Mauboussin , of Columbia University, and previously Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital ...
    4 weeks ago
  • Applied Nate Silver – now what? – 2


    DailyDouqAuthority Authority: 135
    Well, I’ve definitely “hit bottom” on shedding the water weight I gained during vacation, a total of 15.3lbs gone in a week. Yesterday I made some great bread and a great vegetable soup (closer to a stew since I overdid the amount of farro) and so I overate yesterday and thus learning that any amount of ...
    4 weeks ago
  • Applied Nate Silver – now what? – 1


    DailyDouqAuthority Authority: 135
    Apparently I haven’t “hit bottom” on the rapid shedding of “water weight” I gained during the vacation. I had expected that would happen today but it doesn’t look like it did. Here’s the actual number values (total lost, lbs/lost-per-day): 16.09 5.91 2.96 2.77 2.77 1.68 So while there is a ...
    4 weeks ago
  • Applied Nate Silver – now what?


    DailyDouqAuthority Authority: 135
    Vacation was not kind to my weight loss plan, far worse than I expected. But once again this raises a big question about how to apply Nate Silver’s techniques to prediction, that is, what should I expect now. So first the facts, or the fact: I gained 22.1lbs during vacation, or rather between the weigh-ins two ...
    4 weeks ago
  • Weiner Is Polling Second In Mayoral Race, But Still Faces A Hard Road


    Authority Authority:
    As the hype grows over Anthony Weiner’s possible return to New York politics, analysts far and wide are weighing in on the question of what the chances really are for the former congressman. While early polling has Weiner running in second place behind City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, and some analysts ...
    4 weeks ago
  • Nutrition “science” joke


    DailyDouqAuthority Authority: 135
    Pardon my plagiarizing this joke to make a point: 1. The Japanese eat very little fat; the Spaniards eat a lot of fat: both suffer  fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. 2. The Japanese drink very little red wine; the Italians and French excessive  amounts: both suffer fewer heart attacks than the ...
    4 weeks ago

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