prediction markets

Welcome to the 'prediction markets' tag page at Technorati. This page features content from the farthest reaches of the Blogosphere that authors have "tagged" with 'prediction markets'.

Latest blogosphere posts tagged “prediction markets”

• Robin Hanson on the folly of manipulating prediction markets

  
  Caveat Bettor — Authority: 434
  Maybe we might, you know, actually try something before we conclude it doesn’t work .
  1 week ago

• NASA being sued for failure to provide global warming data

  
  Caveat Bettor — Authority: 434
  under the Freedom of Information Act (via Glenn Reynolds ). This is the same data source used for Intrade (real money) and for the Global Warming Exchange (play money) global warming futures. Also, via Glenn, it looks like the software for processing the temperature data sets is pretty ugly : One programmer ...
  1 week ago

• Nate Silver Supports Prediction Markets For Climate Change Analysis

  
  The New Ledger Chequer-Board — Authority: 145
  It’s a nice idea . Good thing that it has already been advocated . Check the third paragraph from the last, and you will see what I mean.
  1 week ago

• Where to get 50x leverage on stock indices

  
  Felix Salmon — Authority: 737
  Last Friday, Jason Kelly put up a very funny blog entry about his launch of a pair of fictional 100x levered ETFs , with the ticker symbols SOAR and SINK: Kelly Capital will reset and relaunch the funds at the beginning of each trading day. The company is in talks with the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) ...
  2 weeks ago

• Blame flannel shirts on Wall Street and Narcissus

  
  Thought Gadgets — Authority: 521
  To understand the current flannel fashion, lets walk over to Wall Street and Greek mythology. First up, market psychology. Theres a saying that investors dont pick stocks based on what they think will happen (if you believe Google shares will rise in value, you buy them) or even what they think others predict will ...
  2 weeks ago

• Close to 0% probability that healthcare legislation passes in 2009

  
  Caveat Bettor — Authority: 434
  according to Intrade traders . (Due to the way transaction costs are assessed, any bid below 5 is effectively 0). And here is an interesting article on the navigation required in the Senate (via TheBrowser ).
  3 weeks ago

• Heathcare legislation in 2009 chances slipping away

  
  Caveat Bettor — Authority: 434
  Trading on Intrades December contract over the past 72 hours:
  5 weeks ago

• What Were Reading...

  
  Economix — Authority: 732
  The hip hop version of Econ 101 and other economic news from around the Web.
  5 weeks ago

• Prediction markets not optimistic about health care legislation being passed in 2009

  
  Caveat Bettor — Authority: 434
  The Intrade contract trading thusly: I like the liquidity on this contract.
  5 weeks ago

• Yet another case for prediction markets over polls!

  
  Caveat Bettor — Authority: 434
  I can only come up with two explanations for [a fourteen point drop in the number of Americans who believe there is solid evidence that anthropogenic global warming is real]: one, that many Americans are happy to embrace a symbolic belief in global warming as long as there is no danger that anyone will do anything ...
  6 weeks ago

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