prediction markets

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Latest blogosphere posts tagged “prediction markets”

 

• IBM economist predicted Emmelie would win Eurovision

  
  — Authority:
  IBM economist David Rothschild developed a statistical model that correctly predicted that Emmelie would win the Eurovision song contest. By feeding data from bookmakers and social media through computers at Microsoft, Mr. Rothschild puts Denmark far ahead of the competition. On a real-time ranking for ...
  3 days ago

• US Record All Calls?

  
  Overcoming Bias — Authority: 575
  Many claim that the US Government saves recordings of all the phone calls, emails, etc. that it can get: Wednesday night, [CNNs] Burnett interviewed Tim Clemente, a former FBI counterterrorism agent, about whether the FBI would be able to discover the contents of past telephone conversations between [terrorist ...
  2 weeks ago

• Frantically revising Japanese corporate earnings projections

  
  — Authority:
  By Sober Look Analysts’ latest adjustments to corporate earnings forecasts for Japanese firms show many more upward than downward revisions. Merrill Lynch tracks the “number of stocks for which consensus EPS estimate has risen vs. the number for which it has fallen” over a 3-month period. That ratio (chart ...
  2 weeks ago

• False Flag Forecasts

  
  Overcoming Bias — Authority: 575
  As admitted by the U.S. government, recently declassified documents show that in the 1960′s, the American Joint Chiefs of Staff signed off on a plan to blow up American airplanes (using an elaborate plan involving the switching of airplanes), and also to commit terrorist acts on American soil, and then to blame it ...
  3 weeks ago

• Diagnosis Futures

  
  Overcoming Bias — Authority: 575
  From ’97 to ’99 I was a RWJF Health Policy Scholar (at UC Berkeley), and my final project and presentation was on what I called “treatment futures”, i.e., the idea of using decision markets to forecast treatment-conditional health outcomes for individual patients. I proposed: At major treatment decision ...
  4 weeks ago

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