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Yales Crash Confidence Index
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Authority: 644
Hickey and Walters ( Bespoke ) submit: The Yale School of Management conducts a number of sentiment surveys each month on individual and institutional investors. One of the surveys asks, "How confident are you that there will be no stock market crash in the next six months?" Based on the results of the survey, ...6 hours ago -
Report from Europe: Stocks Recovering After Data Points to Dovish Fed
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Authority: 644
The Mole submits: US stocks fell for the first time in five days Tuesday, led by financial shares, on concern that share sales, future interest-rate increases and credit-card delinquencies will weigh on earnings at lenders. News of majority leader Steny Hoyer’s suggestion that the US House is considering ...9 hours ago -
Adapting Annualized Volatility
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Authority: 644
Bill Luby submits: In Calculating Centered and Non-centered Historical Volatility I attempted to walk through the steps and calculations necessary for determining of historical volatility (HV) using an Excel spreadsheet. The second to last step in the calculation (before translating the final number into a ...9 hours ago -
First Stocks, Then the Economy...Is Job Growth Next?
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Authority: 644
Jim Kopas submits: The 2007-2009 global financial crisis, the second most vicious bear market of the last century, caught many off guard and displayed unexpected characteristics when compared to past economic downturns. With the decline being so atypical many are surprised to learn that the road to recovery has ...14 hours ago -
Individual Investor Challenge: Can You Succeed by Going It Alone?
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Authority: 644
Jeff Miller submits: We have a special concern for individual investors. This was at the heart of my reason for starting this blog. Many evenings I imagine and write directly to such a person. With this in mind, let us imagine an investor who is unhappy with his/her manager, and is ready to embark on a ...17 hours ago -
Inflation in Producer Prices Reappears
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Authority: 644
Hard Assets Investor submits: By Brad Zigler Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 3.1% Well, its official. Inflations back. At least the inflation in producer prices measured over a years time. This morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that wholesale prices for finished ...22 hours ago -
2009 Changes in Market Caps
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Authority: 644
Hickey and Walters ( Bespoke ) submit: Below we highlight the percent of world stock market cap that various countries make up and how the numbers have changed this year. As shown, the US remains the biggest country with its stocks making up 29.61% of world market cap. This is more than three times Japans ...1 day ago -
Comparing Financials and the Nasdaq
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Authority: 644
Hickey and Walters ( Bespoke ) submit: Many people have compared the decline in Financials during the most recent bear market to the decline in the Nasdaq when the Internet bubble burst in 2000. Below we highlight a chart showing the decline from their peaks for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 Financial sector. The ...1 day ago -
Why Merrill Lynch Is Bullish on 2010: Foreseeing a Burst of the Pessimism Bubble
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Authority: 644
We are just about finished wrapping up our series on 2010 outlooks. In this article we’ll outline Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Bank of America Merrill Lynch is very bullish heading into 2010 ( an outlook similar to RBC ). They see many of the trends of 2009 continuing into 2010 and driving equity markets ...1 day ago -
Report from Europe: Theme Du Jour -- Sovereign Credit Risk
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Authority: 644
The Mole submits: Overnight US equities closed at 14-month highs, boosted by Abu Dhabi’s decision to make a $10 billion payment to Dubai World to help it as it negotiates its debt standstill arrangement and Exxon Mobil’s ( XOM ) belated move into gas in a $31 billion deal move for XTO Energy ( XTO ). Visa ( V ...1 day ago -
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
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Authority: 644
Wells bids TARP farewell. Wells Fargo ( WFC ) became the last major lender to exit TARP, announcing late Monday plans to repay its entire $25B in TARP loans through a $10.4B stock offering. Coupled with Citigroups ( C ) exit early Monday, $161B of the $245B pumped into institutions will have been repaid. The ...1 day ago -
Warnings from the Former Green Shoots Choir
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Authority: 644
Of late, there has been a growing chorus coming from the former green shoots team of economic powers-that-be warning us that some wilting may be possible, related to various deficiencies of foundation soil nutrients, or so it seems. Within this past week, one by one, these leaders have made statements warning that ...1 day ago -
What Is Inflation and Why Do We Care?
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Authority: 644
The Hedonic Calculus submits: I m writing this post because when I have conversations about inflation/deflation with people on Wall Street, many times it seems like were talking about two different phenomena. They seem to talk about consumer prices increases while I talk about inflation in the classical sense: a ...1 day ago -
Recovery Outlook: Overall Economic Growth
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Authority: 644
Economic rebound remains robust and broad-based The US data schedule was light this week, but what was reported provided additional confidence regarding the sustainability of the economic recovery. Complete Story »1 day ago -
Bona Fide Recovery Seems in Order
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Authority: 644
Global equity markets closed higher as the prospect for a bona fide recovery now seems assured. The markets were able to shake off credit fears and focus on continued positive economic data coming out of the U.S. On Wall Street the DJIA closed up 65.67 points to 10,471.50 on better than expected Advanced Retail Sales ...1 day ago -
Government Action: Mission Not Accomplished
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Authority: 644
Peter Schiff submits: Although Barack Obama has refrained, at least for now, from delivering triumphant speeches in a naval flight suit, there is nevertheless a strong tone of accomplishment emanating from the President and his deputies. Over the weekend, top White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers ...1 day ago -
Strategic Default: The New Stimulus
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Authority: 644
Trader Mark submits: Do not underestimate how much American spending / economic data is being supported by the defaulters ... walk away from your largest debt and your monthly spending can immediately shoot up. Even in some pieces in early 2008, we were writing about how for the first time in US history people ...1 day ago -
What Do Labels Used by Mutual Funds Really Mean?
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Authority: 644
Trader Mark submits: Joshua Brown over at The Reformed Broker has the "inside baseball" look at what these mutual fund (and ETF) labels really mean. Thankfully he did not target what I am thinking of using "Absolute Return" [click to enlarge] Complete Story »2 days ago -
S&P 500 Hits New Closing High for 2009
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Authority: 644
Hickey and Walters ( Bespoke ) submit: With little fanfare or hoopla, the S&P 500 put in a closing high for 2009 Monday after trading and remaining above 1,110. As shown at right (click to enlarge) , this level has acted as resistance over the last several weeks. Longer term, however, 1,113 is a level ...2 days ago -
Market Themes and the January Meltdown
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Authority: 644
Alex Trias submits: It is not altogether uncommon to watch with dismay as equities markets around the world plunge in the first, second, maybe third week of trading of the new year. Most of the time, commentators chalk it up to deferred end of the year tax selling – the idea being that by recognizing gains in the ...2 days ago
